Are you a vegan who likes kombucha? Are you real, lit, or looking for a real lit match? Do you even know what these words mean? If not, you probably need to lower your expectations on Tinder. Yesterday, the dating platform – which has an estimated 50 million users worldwide – released its Year in Swipe roundup: an analysis of user data and activity in the last year, that tells us how the world dated on the app in 2019.

In a time where we have 3D printed rockets and genome sequencing for 1000, why are our methods for identifying and understanding emerging technology trends so abysmally antiquated? A prime example is in the below graphic of industry analyst estimates of 2 markets -- virtual reality and drones. For some reason, we're forced to settle for the random guesses of the Pundit Industrial Complex. You might compare it to throwing darts, but that would be insulting to darts. Even harder than forecasting the size of a market people already know about is the early identification of emerging technologies you should be aware of.